Company Reports
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| Ticker | Mkt Cap $bn | Stock Price | Stock QoQ | Rev YoY + OM% | TTM OP QoQ | Debt/EBITDA | PEG | Catalysts | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| >40% | Accel | >10% | Accel | <2 | <5 | |||||
| AAPL | 4,089 | 278 | 2.00% | • Stock vs TTM OP (8 Quarters): Over 8 quarters (Mar '24 to Dec '25), AAPL stock rose ~59% ($171 to $272) while TTM OP grew ~19% ($129.4B to $154.2B). The stock significantly outperformed TTM OP growth, reflecting substantial multiple expansion. This is driven by the market pricing in the iPhone 17 super-cycle, accelerating Services monetization, and AI/Apple Intelligence narrative commanding a premium valuation. • Stock QoQ Drivers: Stock QoQ most closely tracks SUM (RevYoY + OM) acceleration. When SUM accelerated from 40% to 51% in Dec '25, stock rose +7%. When SUM decelerated from 38% to 36% in Mar '25, stock fell -11%. TTM OP QoQ acceleration from +2% to +6% in Dec '25 also correlated with positive stock movement. The TTM FCF/OP recovery from 68% to 80% in Dec '25 provided additional support. |
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| AMD | 340 | 208 | -3.00% | • Stock vs TTM OP (8 Quarters): Stock returned +34% ($180 to $242) while TTM OP grew +243% ($2.0B to $6.9B). Stock significantly underperformed TTM OP growth due to multiple compression as investors questioned AMD's ability to compete with NVIDIA in AI chips, and concerns over China export restrictions. However, the OpenAI partnership and MI400/MI450 roadmap have restored confidence, leading to stock recovery from the $103 trough in Mar25. • Stock QoQ Drivers: Stock QoQ most closely tracks acceleration in TTM OP QoQ and major AI partnership announcements. The Q2 2025 quarter saw +38% stock gain despite operating margin pressure, driven by the OpenAI 6GW partnership announcement. Strong correlation between Rule of 40 SUM exceeding 40% and positive stock momentum, as seen in Sep25 (49% SUM, +14% stock) and Dec25 (51% SUM, +32% stock). |
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