| Mar '24 Q2 FY24 |
Jun '24 Q3 FY24 |
Sep '24 Q4 FY24 |
Dec '24 Q1 FY25 |
Mar '25 Q2 FY25 |
Jun '25 Q3 FY25 |
Sep '25 Q4 FY25 |
Dec '25 Q1 FY26 |
Mar '26 (E) Q2 FY26 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price | $171 | $210 | $232 | $250 | $222 | $205 | $255 | $272 | $278 |
| Stock QoQ | -11% | +23% | +11% | +8% | -11% | -8% | +24% | +7% | +2% |
| Revenue YoY | -4% | +5% | +6% | +4% | +5% | +10% | +8% | +16% | +16% |
| Op Margin | 31% | 30% | 31% | 34% | 31% | 30% | 32% | 35% | 32% |
| SUM=RevYoY + OM | 26% | 34% | 37% | 38% | 36% | 40% | 40% | 51% | 48% |
| TTM Op Profit ($M) | $129,443 | $132,049 | $134,904 | $137,652 | $139,603 | $142,752 | $145,913 | $154,241 | $160,343 |
| TTM OP QoQ | 0% | +2% | +2% | +2% | +1% | +2% | +2% | +6% | +4% |
| TTM FCF/OP | 79% | 79% | 81% | 71% | 71% | 67% | 68% | 80% | N/A |
| Debt/EBITDA | 0.8x | 0.8x | 0.9x | 0.7x | 0.7x | 0.7x | 0.7x | 0.6x | N/A |
(E) = Expected/Estimated | Apple FYE = September
Q2 FY26 guidance of $107.8-110.7B significantly exceeds consensus ($104.8B), suggesting another beat is likely. iPhone supply constraints imply pent-up demand that could extend the cycle. Services at a $120B+ annual run-rate with 76.5% gross margins provides earnings stability. Memory cost headwinds appear manageable given strong pricing power. Near-term EPS upside of 5-10% vs consensus is plausible.
iPhone 17 cycle has further legs as supply constraints ease and pent-up demand converts. Apple Intelligence features launching throughout 2026 (enhanced Siri, Google partnership models) could drive a second wave of upgrades. Services revenue trajectory toward $130B+ annually with expanding margins. China recovery appears durable with 38% growth and record store traffic. Operating leverage from the $500B US investment program begins to materialize.
AI-driven ecosystem lock-in strengthens the installed base moat (2.5B devices). On-device AI and private cloud compute create differentiated capabilities competitors cannot easily replicate. India represents a massive underpenetrated market with majority of buyers new to Apple. Services TAM expansion through financial services, advertising, and health. Potential for new product categories leveraging the AI platform (AR/VR, automotive).
Stock is up ~9% over the past 3 months ($255 in Sep '25 to $278 in Mar '26 estimate). At $4.1T market cap, AAPL trades at roughly 26x TTM operating income ($154B), reflecting premium but not excessive valuation for a company accelerating to +16% revenue growth. The market appears to be appropriately pricing the iPhone 17 super-cycle but may be under-appreciating the durability of the China recovery (+38% YoY) and the multi-year AI upgrade cycle. If TTM OP reaches $175B+ by FY26 end (currently trending at $160B+), the current stock price implies only modest multiple expansion is needed for further upside.
| Metric | Reported | YoY | vs Consensus | Next Q Guidance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $102.5B | +8% | Beat ~1.3% | +10-12% YoY (Dec qtr) |
| EPS | $1.85 | +13% (adj) | Beat | — |
| Gross Margin | 47.2% | +100bps | — | 47-48% |
| Net Income | $27.5B | +16% (adj) | — | — |
| Stock Reaction | +3.5% (after hours) | — | — | — |
| Metric | Reported | YoY | vs Consensus | Next Q Guidance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $94.0B | +10% | Beat 5.7% ($88.9B est) | Mid-to-high single-digit YoY |
| EPS | $1.57 | +12% | Beat 10.6% ($1.42 est) | — |
| Gross Margin | 46.5% | +20bps | — | 46-47% |
| Net Income | $23.4B | +9% | — | — |
| Stock Reaction | +2% (after hours) | — | — | — |
| Metric | Reported | YoY | vs Consensus | Next Q Guidance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $95.4B | +5% | Beat ~0.8% (~$94.6B est) | Mid-to-high single-digit YoY |
| EPS | $1.65 | +8% | Beat ~2% (~$1.62 est) | — |
| Gross Margin | 47.1% | +180bps | — | — |
| Net Income | $24.8B | +5% | — | — |
| Stock Reaction | -2% (after hours) | — | — | — |