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Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD)

Quarterly Earnings Analysis Report
Q4 2025, Q3 2025, Q2 2025 | Generated: February 3, 2026
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Key Financials (9 Quarters)

Market Cap: $394B | Fiscal Year End: December

Mar24 Jun24 Sep24 Dec24 Mar25 Jun25 Sep25 Dec25 Mar26 (E)
Revenue Growth (YoY) +2% +9% +18% +24% +36% +32% +36% +34% +34%
Operating Margin 1% 5% 11% 14% 11% 9% 14% 17% 15%
--- Rule of 40 ---
SUM=RevYoY + OM 3% 13% 28% 38% 47% 40% 49% 51% 49%
TTM Metrics
TTM Operating Income ($M) 2,028 2,315 2,813 3,493 4,256 4,677 5,291 6,133 6,951
TTM OP QoQ +14% +14% +22% +24% +22% +10% +13% +16% +13%
TTM FCF/OP 58% 59% 55% 69% 65% 86% 103% N/A N/A
Debt/EBITDA 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.6 N/A N/A
Stock Performance
Close (Quarterly) $180 $162 $164 $121 $103 $142 $162 $214 $242
Stock QoQ +22% -10% +1% -26% -15% +38% +14% +32% +13%

FYE December | (E) = Expected/Estimated

Trend Analysis

  • Stock vs TTM OP (8 Quarters): Stock returned +34% ($180 to $242) while TTM OP grew +243% ($2.0B to $6.9B). Stock significantly underperformed TTM OP growth due to multiple compression as investors questioned AMD's ability to compete with NVIDIA in AI chips, and concerns over China export restrictions. However, the OpenAI partnership and MI400/MI450 roadmap have restored confidence, leading to stock recovery from the $103 trough in Mar25.
  • Stock QoQ Drivers: Stock QoQ most closely tracks acceleration in TTM OP QoQ and major AI partnership announcements. The Q2 2025 quarter saw +38% stock gain despite operating margin pressure, driven by the OpenAI 6GW partnership announcement. Strong correlation between Rule of 40 SUM exceeding 40% and positive stock momentum, as seen in Sep25 (49% SUM, +14% stock) and Dec25 (51% SUM, +32% stock).
  • Next Quarter Outlook: Management guided Q1 2026 revenue of ~$9.8B (+32% YoY) with gross margin of ~55%. SUM=RevYoY+OM expected to remain above 40% (bullish). TTM OP QoQ expected to moderate to +13% as Q2 2025's MI308 export charge falls off the trailing calculation. MI450 ramp beginning in H2 2026 should drive re-acceleration. Overall outlook: Moderately bullish with AI infrastructure buildout as key catalyst.

Quarterly Performance (Most Recent 3 Quarters)

Q4 2025 (Oct-Dec 2025) - Most Recent

Earnings released: February 3, 2026

Metric Reported YoY Change vs Consensus Next Q Guidance
Revenue $10.3B +34% Beat ($10.0B est.) ~$9.8B (+32% YoY)
EPS (Non-GAAP) $1.53 +40% Beat ($1.32 est.) --
Gross Margin 54% +400 bps -- ~55%
Data Center Revenue $5.4B +39% Record Strong growth
Client & Gaming Revenue $3.9B +37% Record Client --
Embedded Revenue $950M +3% Return to growth --
Stock Reaction -8% (after hours) -- --

Opportunities

  • Record Revenue and Earnings: AMD achieved record Q4 revenue of $10.3B and record non-GAAP net income of $2.5B (+42% YoY), demonstrating strong execution across all product lines.
  • Data Center Dominance: Data Center hit record $5.4B revenue (+39% YoY), driven by EPYC server share gains and Instinct MI350 GPU ramp for AI workloads.
  • Client CPU Market Share Gains: Client revenue reached record $3.1B (+34% YoY) with AMD's PC market share climbing to ~33%, driven by Ryzen "Zen 5" demand.
  • MI450 and Helios Roadmap: Strong customer interest in MI450 series launching H2 2026 with 432GB HBM4, positioning AMD to compete with NVIDIA Rubin.

Challenges

  • Q1 2026 Guidance Miss: Q1 guidance of $9.8B fell short of some analyst expectations (~$10B+), causing stock to drop 8% after hours despite the earnings beat.
  • China Export Restrictions: MI308 sales to China remain restricted, limiting TAM. Q1 guidance includes only ~$100M of MI308 China sales pending license review.
  • NVIDIA Competition: Despite progress, AMD still trails NVIDIA significantly in AI GPU market share. NVIDIA's Blackwell and upcoming Rubin maintain technology lead.
  • Embedded Segment Softness: Embedded revenue grew only 3% YoY after prolonged weakness, reflecting mixed demand in industrial and communications markets.

Q3 2025 (Jul-Sep 2025) - Previous Quarter

Earnings released: November 4, 2025

Metric Reported YoY Change vs Consensus Next Q Guidance
Revenue $9.2B +36% Beat ($8.9B est.) ~$9.6B (+25% YoY)
EPS (Non-GAAP) $1.20 +30% Beat ($1.09 est.) --
Gross Margin 54% +40 bps -- ~54.5%
Data Center Revenue $4.3B +22% Record Double-digit growth
Client & Gaming Revenue $4.0B +73% Record Client --
Embedded Revenue $857M -8% -- Return to growth
Stock Reaction -4% (after hours) -- --

Opportunities

  • OpenAI Strategic Partnership: Announced landmark deal with OpenAI to deploy 6GW of AMD Instinct GPUs, with OpenAI taking potential 10% stake via warrants - major validation of AMD AI platform.
  • Oracle AI Supercluster: Oracle committed to deploy 50,000 AMD Instinct MI450 GPUs in cloud starting 2026, demonstrating hyperscaler adoption beyond traditional NVIDIA deployments.
  • Gaming Revenue Surge: Gaming revenue of $1.3B grew 181% YoY, driven by semi-custom console demand and strong Radeon RX 9000 series adoption.
  • Record Free Cash Flow: Free cash flow more than tripled year-over-year, demonstrating improved capital efficiency and ability to fund R&D investments.

Challenges

  • Data Center Growth Deceleration: Data Center grew "only" 22% YoY vs. expectations for 30%+, raising concerns about AI GPU demand sustainability.
  • Embedded Decline Continues: Embedded segment down 8% YoY, extending multi-quarter weakness in industrial and automotive end markets.
  • China Restrictions Persist: Q4 outlook excluded any MI308 China revenue as export licenses remain under review, limiting near-term upside.
  • Stock Sell-off Despite Beat: Despite beating expectations, stock fell 4% as investors focused on conservative guidance and competitive concerns.

Q2 2025 (Apr-Jun 2025) - Two Quarters Ago

Earnings released: August 5, 2025

Metric Reported YoY Change vs Consensus Next Q Guidance
Revenue $7.7B +32% Beat ($7.5B est.) ~$8.7B (+28% YoY)
EPS (Non-GAAP) $0.48 -27% Miss (export charges) --
Gross Margin (GAAP) 40% -900 bps MI308 charge impact ~54%
Data Center Revenue $3.2B +14% Export restricted Strong growth
Client & Gaming Revenue $3.6B +69% Record Client --
Embedded Revenue $824M -4% -- --
Stock Reaction +38% QoQ (OpenAI news) -- --

Opportunities

  • Record Client Revenue: Client CPU revenue hit record $2.5B (+67% YoY) with market share climbing to 33%, driven by "Zen 5" Ryzen processor demand.
  • Gaming Resurgence: Gaming revenue of $1.1B grew 73% YoY on strong semi-custom and Radeon GPU demand, reversing prior quarters' weakness.
  • Excluding MI308 Charge: Non-GAAP gross margin would have been ~54% excluding the $800M MI308 inventory write-down, demonstrating underlying strength.
  • Client Market Share Momentum: AMD's PC CPU market share grew from 24% to 33% year-over-year, taking significant share from Intel in both desktop and laptop.

Challenges

  • $800M Export Restriction Charge: U.S. government export controls on MI308 GPUs to China resulted in $800M inventory write-down, crushing EPS.
  • Data Center Margin Pressure: Data Center segment posted $155M operating loss vs. $740M profit in prior year due to MI308 charges and AI GPU investment.
  • China Market Uncertainty: MI308 license applications under review with no timeline, creating ongoing revenue and margin uncertainty.
  • Embedded Weakness Persists: Embedded down 4% YoY, marking fourth consecutive quarter of decline in industrial and communications markets.

Recent Important News (Past 2 Months)

AMD Reports Record Q4 2025 Results - Revenue $10.3B, EPS $1.53

February 3, 2026

AMD reported record fourth quarter and full year 2025 results with Q4 revenue of $10.3B (+34% YoY) and non-GAAP EPS of $1.53 (+40% YoY). Full year 2025 revenue reached record $34.6B. Data Center segment hit record $5.4B quarterly revenue. Stock fell 8% after hours as Q1 2026 guidance of $9.8B came in below some expectations.

TCS Partners with AMD to Co-Develop AI and GenAI Solutions

January 27, 2026

Tata Consultancy Services announced a strategic collaboration with AMD to co-develop AI and generative AI solutions across enterprise sectors. The partnership focuses on data center AI demand, enterprise AI adoption, and getting AMD hardware designed into cloud, edge, and workplace environments.

AMD Unveils Full MI400 Product Lineup at CES 2026

January 6, 2026

At CES 2026, AMD CEO Dr. Lisa Su unveiled the complete Instinct MI400 series including MI430X, MI440X, and MI455X accelerators. The MI455X features 432GB HBM4 memory with 19.6TB/sec bandwidth. AMD also announced the Helios rack-scale platform for AI superclusters, with Oracle and HPE as launch partners.

OpenAI Commits to 6GW of AMD Instinct GPUs

October 2025 (ongoing)

AMD and OpenAI's multi-year partnership to deploy 6 gigawatts of AMD Instinct GPUs continues to progress. OpenAI will begin with 1GW of MI450 GPUs in H2 2026 for next-generation AI infrastructure. AMD issued OpenAI warrants for up to 160 million shares (~10% potential stake).

AMD Board Expands with Former Accenture CFO

January 2026

AMD expanded its board from eight to nine directors, appointing KC McClure, former CFO of Accenture, as an independent director. McClure will serve on the Audit and Finance Committee, bringing enterprise technology and financial expertise as AMD scales its AI business.

Sources

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated from publicly available earnings materials and is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice. Always verify information with official company filings and consult a financial professional before making investment decisions.